The 2010 Tony Awards will be handed out tonight. I know most of you don't know much about this -- or care -- so I've tried to at least make this mildly humorous. I can't stress the word "mildly" enough.

There's a rock showdown of sorts in the offing, as this year's field includes Green Day's critically acclaimed rock opera American Idiot, and Memphis, a more traditional tuner (to use the douchey Variety lingo) written by Bon Jovi keyboardist David Bryan.

The shows are sharply different in style, as are the hairdos of Bryan and Billie Joe Armstrong:



While I wish I had the money to see... well, everything, I've only (so far) gotten to two of the shows that debuted this past season. But here come my picks in the major categories anyway (in bold). I'm only doing the Musical stuff. Screw 'dem straight plays. (Sorry, Denzel. I'll throw your picture on top

Best Musical

American Idiot
Fela!
Memphis
Million Dollar Quartet

Toughie! Made tougher by the fact that I haven't seen any of them yet. I went back and forth between Bon Jovi and Green Day. Which probably means it will be Fela! I thought the voters might want to be seen as hip by going with American Idiot... but Fela! is ethnic, and unique. So I'll go with that. Degree of confidence: 31.9%.

Best Book of a Musical

Fela!
Memphis
Million Dollar Quartet
Everyday Rapture

Guess. But most of the others don't really have traditional plots, and it seems Memphis has gotten more props as the months have rolled along. Degree of confidence: 55.4%

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

The Addams Family
Enron
Fences
Memphis

It is a sad commentary that two of the four nominees in this category aren't even musicals! It would be even sadder if one of them won. Degree of confidence: 74.9%

Best Revival of a Musical

Finian's Rainbow
La Cage aux Folles
A Little Night Music
Ragtime

Hey, a category where I've seen stuff! This is a tough one. ALNM was quite enjoyable. The critics (and I) liked Ragtime, but it closed quickly. I go with Kelsey Grammer & Co. Degree of confidence: 28.9%. Yep, might as well have thrown a dart.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Kelsey Grammer, La Cage aux Folles
Sean Hayes, Promises, Promises
Douglas Hodge, La Cage aux Folles
Chad Kimball, Memphis
Sahr Ngaujah, Fela!

From what I've read, he's awesome. And British. Bonus points for that. I'm stopping with the degree of confidence.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Kate Baldwin, Finian's Rainbow
Montego Glover, Memphis
Christiane Noll, Ragtime
Sherie Rene Scott, Everyday Rapture
Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music

It was hardly a challenging role, but she did it well. And she's Catherine Zeta-Jones, someone non-Broadway folks know. The academy caves, I say. Did I mention I saw her fake rubber boobshirt from the third row?

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

Kevin Chamberlin, The Addams Family
Robin De Jesús, La Cage aux Folles
Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow
Levi Kreis, Million Dollar Quartet
Bobby Steggert, Ragtime

I'm going with the one person I actually saw. He seems to be a popular fellow among Broadwayans (little known Wayans Brother). Though like the Christians say, it's hard to beat De Jesus. Although I just read a NYT article that said it's definitely going to be Levi Kreis. So there you go.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Barbara Cook, Sondheim on Sondheim
Katie Finneran, Promises, Promises
Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music
Karine Plantadit, Come Fly Away
Lillias White, Fela!

Can they resist Angela Lansbury? I say yes, because she's won a crapload of these before. And Finneran supposedly does some really hilarious stuff in Promises, Promises. And she's been on Frasier. Bonus points for that.

Best Direction of a Musical

Christopher Ashley, Memphis
Marcia Milgrom Dodge, Ragtime
Terry Johnson, La Cage aux Folles
Bill T. Jones, Fela!

I have no idea! But Fela -- featuring African music and dancing -- is supposed to be quite the energetic spectacle. That's got to be tricky to direct, right? The man with the exciting show and the dull name gets my vote.

I wonder if he's related to Angus T. Jones?


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