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Monday, April 19, 2010

Bill James (through me) rains on the parade 

Any baseball fan knows that 12 games into the season is too soon to make any determinations about... well, anything.

But there's an actual statistical argument to back up the claim that the Pirates' 7-5 start is probably not what it appears.

I read in the PG that the Bucs have done all this magical winning despite being outscored 75-53.

According to Bill James' Pythagorean Winning Percentage -- which predicts wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed, the Pirates should really be 4-8.

Which seems more like it.

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