Monday, December 15, 2008
NFL playoff seedings: A pointless but enjoyable analysis
I was going to write a post titled, "I kind of hope the Steelers lose next week."
After all, it makes sense to have an aversion to the #1 seed, given that the Steelers have made an absolute mess of it each and every time they've earned it.
Instead, I decided to compare the fates of all the #1 and #2 seeds in the current playoff alignment (since 1990) to see if the Steelers would be any better off, history-wise, as the #2.
The factoids:
#1 Seeds:
Win SB: 8
Lose SB: 10
Lose CONF: 10
Lose DIV: 6
#2 Seeds:
Win SB: 5
Lose SB: 5
Lose CONF: 17
Lose DIV: 9
So what have we learned here? Only that I can waste a lot of time on Wikipedia. But also that, by the numbers, more #1 seeds succeed than #2 seeds.
But in this specific case, regarding next week, I am still unsure. We already have home field advantage against everyone but Tennessee. If we have to face the Titans again, wouldn't we rather be the angry, revenge-seeking mob than face it?
Discuss.
0 comments. Leave one!
After all, it makes sense to have an aversion to the #1 seed, given that the Steelers have made an absolute mess of it each and every time they've earned it.
Instead, I decided to compare the fates of all the #1 and #2 seeds in the current playoff alignment (since 1990) to see if the Steelers would be any better off, history-wise, as the #2.
The factoids:
- 50% of #1 seeds (18/36) have made it to the Super Bowl, compared to 28% of #2 seeds (10/36). Aside: AFC #1's have done much worse than NFC #1's. And more of them have been knocked out in the Divisional round.
- The most frequent outcome for a #1 seed is to lose in the Super Bowl (10/36) or lose the Conference Championship (10/36).
- The most frequent outcome for a #2 seed -- by far -- is to lose in the Conference Championship. This is the fate of 47% (17/36) of #2's.
- Seeds 3 through 6 combined have only made it to the Super Bowl 22% of the time (8/36).
- General word of caution whether the Steelers are #1 or #2: 24% of the time (17/72), the bye week teams have gone down in flames in the Divisional round. I think 90% of those were the Kordell-led Steelers.
#1 Seeds:
Win SB: 8
Lose SB: 10
Lose CONF: 10
Lose DIV: 6
#2 Seeds:
Win SB: 5
Lose SB: 5
Lose CONF: 17
Lose DIV: 9
So what have we learned here? Only that I can waste a lot of time on Wikipedia. But also that, by the numbers, more #1 seeds succeed than #2 seeds.
But in this specific case, regarding next week, I am still unsure. We already have home field advantage against everyone but Tennessee. If we have to face the Titans again, wouldn't we rather be the angry, revenge-seeking mob than face it?
Discuss.
0 comments. Leave one!
